Mercurius.
Mercurius.
I built it to win. Then I did the harder thing — I built it to tell me the truth.
An autonomous trading system. Six agents, each reading a different slice of the market — Sentinel scanning, Atlas on macro, Cipher on technicals, Oracle on fundamentals, Pulse on sentiment, Structure on the tape. An Arbiter counting votes, consensus required before any position. A self-improving filter, a ten-layer guard system, three months live on a £100,000 virtual book, running around the clock. Built alone.
It never made money, and for a long time the answer was to add — more agents, more data, more machinery around the same signals. The harder move was to stop adding and start measuring. The system’s own database delivered the verdict: 1,325 closed positions, a total P&L indistinguishable from zero, no agent beating a coin flip at scale. The signals were noise. A council of agents all reading the same public data cannot manufacture information none of them has.
So I rebuilt it from the ground up around one rule: nothing trades without a walk-forward backtest that survives realistic costs. Then I tested the five best strategies available to a retail account with genuine rigour — cross-asset momentum, an event strategy on coffee, FX carry, futures positioning, vol-targeted momentum. Every one came back a loss after costs. And where real signal existed — twice, it did — the broker’s overnight funding charge erased it. That drag scales with position size. You cannot trade smaller to escape it.
So I wound it down — not because it broke, but because it was proven. A negative result you can trust is worth more than a positive one you can’t.
The apparatus outlived the experiment. The backtest engine, the honest cost model, the pre-committed stopping rule — the method of measuring honestly and killing what doesn’t survive evidence — is the part I kept.
The Arbiter required consensus before any position, behind a self-improving filter and a layered guard, all trading a virtual book.
Sentinel scanned the market, and its own ratings later showed it calling direction no better than a coin flip at scale.
Atlas read macro, one slice of the same public data every agent drew from.
Cipher read the technicals, the shape of price on the chart.
Oracle read the fundamentals and cast its vote with the rest.
Pulse read sentiment, the public mood around each market.
Structure read the tape; six readers of the same public data measured consensus, not edge, because none of them held information the others lacked.
I rebuilt it around one rule, no trade without a walk-forward backtest that survives realistic costs, and when nothing survived, the rule closed the file.




